Weather Watch: Tropical System Expected to Intensify in the Gulf

We are almost a full month into the 2025 hurricane season. A few days ago, our first named storm of the season (Andrea) formed in the Atlantic, but quickly dissipated as it moved eastward.

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Meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center are now focusing their attention on an unorganized area of disturbed weather just off the western coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Chances of Development

The National Hurricane Center gives this stormy area a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system (depression, perhaps) over the next few days.

This will bring numerous downpours to the portions of the Yucatan and the Gulf Coast of eastern Mexico as it moves towards the northwest

What About Texas and The US Gulf Coast?

Even if the system strengthens over the next few days, it's expected to be a non-factor for Texas.

Extreme South Texas will experience an increase in rain chances through the end of June, but the likelihood of flooding is expected to be isolated to Mexico.

Another Area of Concern for the US Coast

The biggest concern for states along the Gulf Coast will be for extreme amounts of rainfall expected over the next 5 days along the coastline of the Panhandle of Florida and coastal Alabama.

Tropical moisture is forecast to bring up to 10 inches of rain in some areas, with possible isolated flooding.

For now, the National Hurricane Center believes this area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche will not have enough time to organize into our next named storm of the season. But if it does, it will be Tropical Storm Barry.

By Monday, this system should move inland over eastern Mexico, ending its chances of
development. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.