Latest Hurricane Forecast Doesn’t Look Good for East Texas

What can you say about the year 2020?

A lot of things come to mind but this is a family website.  This would have been a good year to have a second home in someplace like Antarctica.  Sure, you'd have to brave temperatures well below zero, but that seems to be pretty easy compared to what we've been up against so far this year.  Did you know that alcoholic drink consumption has been way up this year across the world?  So, there's another bonus in moving to the South Pole since you would never run out of ice for your margaritas and cocktails.

COVID-19, murder hornets, conspiracy theories, racial unrest, election craziness, and now, (drum roll) we have the chance to have two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time.  I've read where this is the first time since records have been kept that this has occurred -- and it's giving the weather forecasters fits in trying to pinpoint where the storms are heading.  

Here's what we know:

Originally Marco was heading towards Cozumel and the Yucatan and then was supposed to move towards Galveston as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane.  It ended up completely missing the Yucatan and is now forecast as of noon Sunday to make landfall somewhere south or southwest of New Orleans as a minimal hurricane.

Originally Laura was expected to make landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane along the Panhandle of Florida.  Now, as of noon Sunday, it's expected to make landfall near Port Arthur as a strong Category 2 Hurricane. That's a nearly 500 mile change in the predicted track of this storm.

East Texans will not look favorably at the latest forecast models for these storms.  According to the latest from the National Hurricane Center, once Marco makes landfall in southeastern Louisiana, it will make an abrupt turn towards the west.  By Tuesday, the remnants of Marco should bring tropical storm force winds (great than 39 mph) to parts of the Pineywoods, not to mention some downpours as well.

Then here comes Laura.  She should make landfall near Sabine Pass late Wednesday or Thursday with winds possibly over 100 mph. Deep East Texas could have hurricane force winds (greater than 74 mph) by Thursday.  Anyone here remember what happened in 2005?  That's when Hurricane Rita crashed the Beaumont/Port Arthur area with 120 mph sustained winds and then tracked across the Deep East Texas lakes region.  Take a look at the track of Rita in this map.

So, that's the bad news, the possible worst-case scenario.  It might be a good idea to stock up on what you would need in case we have long-term power outages.

The good news is that the forecast models have been fluctuating wildly.  It seems that with every new guidance issued every three hours, there a major shifts in the cone track.  Don't blame the forecasters for the constant track changes.  This is an extremely rare occurrence and forecasting where the two storms will end up is like trying to predict what was going to happen in 2020.

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